Draft: Half Way Through

Disclaimer: This post will be updated and posted on VB on either Monday or Tuesday after the Recap comes out.  I just wanted to get on it before I got busy with school and work on Monday.

With the Michigan State Series wrapping up today, the BigTen Conference season has reached the midpoint.  The conference season hasn’t fared so well for Michigan, obviously, as the Wolverines are currently 4-7 in 8th place.  Lets take a look back at what we’ve seen, then look forward to what we have left to know what we have to do to make a solid run, and finally end up with my projections to the finish.

Where We’ve Been

Series Record 2-1
Scores 4-3 1-2 7-5
Game 1 Fetter gives up 3 early, but clamps down for the CG, and the comeback win
Game 2 Katzman/Miller/Burgoon combine to 6-hit Iowa but lose as we have no offense
Game 3 With snow piled up in the warning track, an ugly game defensively for both teams.  We out hit and take advantage of 5 Iowa errors.
Outlook then We should have swept, but this series shouldn’t affect a tournament bid.

We should have swept.  Iowa is one of only two teams below us in the standings.  We definitely need that win now. Iowa’s season has been a slow spiral downward. They took one game from Purdue, were swept by Indiana, and split with Northwestern. Iowa isn’t a good team and we squandered that game.

vs Penn State
Series Record 1-2
Scores 4-6 (10) 9-5 5-16
Game 1 Fetter gives up 3 in the 4th and 1 in the fifth, but offense went to sleep and Miller gave up two in the 10th.
Game 2 Katzman pitched well, but PSU scored a 5 spot late from a LaMarre error, we scored 5 to answer in the bottom of that inning.
Game 3 We never stood a chance as Smith/Wilson/Sinnery/Gerbe give up 16 runs(12 earned).  Total blowout.
Outlook then My expectations for the team are falling pretty fast. With the massive amount of inconsistency, added with the sloppy play all weekend on defense, I’m not sure we get higher than a 4 seed in the BTT now.

We’re pretty equal to Penn State.  They are currently right at .500 in conference play.  We’ll be fighting them head to head for a 6th spot in the tournament.  Losing the series to them hurts as it is the tie breaker.

vs Illinois
Series Record 1-2
Scores 4-2 8-10 5-11
Game 1 Fetter goes the distance again with 13 Ks. Offense scrapes by.
Game 2 We knock out the Big10s best pitcher (along with possible injury) out after 1 inning.  Sloppy defense in the 5th gives up 5 runs.
Game 3 Alan Oaks kept the team in the game after a shaky Smith start.  Unfortunately he stayed in about 3 batters too long, leading to a late 4 run inning.
Outlook then I don’t think this was too bad of a weekend for the team. Illinois is one of the better teams in the conference this season, especially in the pitching department. There were a few lapses though, especially on defense.

This still wasn’t a bad series.  We could have performed a little bit better, but the outcome is about what I would have expected.  Illinois is a strong team and toward the top of the BigTen standings.  They’ll be a top 3 seed in the tournament.

@/vs Michigan State
Series Record 0-2
Scores 7-8 (11) 1-3 0-0
Game 1 Fetter gives up 3 (1 earned) in 8 innings, leaving with the lead. Burgoon blows the save by overthrowing 2nd base on a sac bunt.  He blows the win again in the 10th giving up 2 earned runs.  Katzman takes the loss in the 11th.
Game 2 Alan Oaks throws the game of his career, 7.2 innings, 3 Rs, 5 BB, 4 K. No offense as we only get 5 total bases.
Game 3 TBD
Outlook then TBD

Then is now. It still sucks.  Michigan State defends their homefield well, but we would have won Game 1 if not for the bullpen.  We should have won Game 2 if not for the lack of offense.  Would have, should have, didn’t.

Where We’re Going

Indiana (6-3):  The Hoosiers are a great hitting team and have probably the best offensive player in the BigTen with Josh Phegley.  The Hoosiers have players in the top 3 of nearly every offensive category in BigTen play.  They also rank third in the league in strikeouts.  The Hoosiers split a pair with Minnesota, took 2 of 3 from Illinois, swept Iowa, and took 2 of 3 from Penn State.   We may take one game in this series.  I fear the Sunday game.

@#26 Ohio State (7-3): Everything the Hoosiers do, Ohio State does better.  The Buckeyes sit atop the BigTen standing and will have a hostile home crowd.  They took 2 from Penn State, 1 from Minnesota, swept Michigan State, and swept Purdue.  My prediction: pain.  I again think we have a shot to win a game, but it’s not a very high chance.  The one thing we’ve got going for us is no midweek games so the entire bullpen should be rested.  Game 1 of Fetter vs Wimmers should be epic (aka most of you will find it boring as all hell).

Minnesota (7-3): Minnesota completes our three game streak of tough competition.  The Gophers are ranked in some polls – deservedly so.  Offensively, their numbers match up to Michigan’s very well, but they get that extra hit to drive in the run where Michigan has failed consistently all year.  On the pitching side, they are exactly opposite of Michigan… they are consistently good.  Minnesota split a pair with Indiana, took 2 of three from Ohio State, swept Northwestern, and took 1 of three from Illinois.  The outlook doesn’t look good right now.  It’ll be a struggle to win a game here.  The only good news I can offer is we do better against good pitchers than we do meh pitchers.

@Northwestern (2-7):  Northwestern is the worst team in the BigTen.  They are the worst hitting team in the BigTen and they don’t pitch particularly well.  They rival Michigan State for fewest strikeouts, but sit 7th in BigTen team ERA.  I see us winning at least two games in this series, most likely a sweep.  But as we’ve seen all season, we have a tendency to blow games to inferior teams.

I really think we end up with 6 or 7 wins out of that schedule, especially the way we’re playing right now.  That leaves us with a conference record around 10-13 or 11-12 for the season.  The cut of for the tournament is historically around 12 wins (actually ~=16 wins, but we moved from 4 game series to 3 this year, 16*.75=12).  We’ll be very close to making the 6 seed to keep our 6 year conference tournament streak alive.


One Response to Draft: Half Way Through

  1. I need to work on my parallelism a bit.

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